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Halfway through 2024 now - WHAAAAT??? And it's a Presidential election year, which can change a few of the "norms" in our Real Estate cycle.
The first Presidential Debate really has a lot of us wondering what to expect, but a snapshot of history in Real Estate takes some of the mystery out of that election element, at least.
I'll get more into the election housing market in a bit, and what to expect for Real Estate as a result. But first, a snapshot of what's happening here locally now.
Another Record Broken 🤯
The biggest housing headline in Greater Nashville is Williamson County just broke shattered another home price record, soaring past the month before, and breaching the million-dollar Median home sales price mark in May. WOW.
You can see in the chart below, the past four out of five full months of 2024 broke home price records in Williamson County, but never hit the million-dollar mark.
Now, we're coasting at a $1,050,000 Median sales price, as represented by the
blue dotted line.
The
red and
black dotted lines represent the two previous years' home sales prices month-by-month. An incredible difference, to say the least, and hard to ignore the incredible home price gains for 2024 so far!
June's numbers are not out yet because the month is not yet over, and a lot of Closings happen in those last couple of days. It'll be another couple of weeks before we have June's home price results but I'm betting it'll hover around this same mark as May.
Side note: Median and Average prices are not the same. I consider Median to be a more accurate snapshot of home prices and appreciation because it rules out the outliers of dramatic multi-million dollar home purchase and sale prices. However, the May 2024 Average home price in Williamson County is $1,296,019. We broke the million-dollar Average sales price in January 2022, and have held firm above the $1MM mark since then.
In Greater Nashville, our Median home price is also up! We saw a 5% year-to-year increase, which puts us at $470,000 as of May 2024.
Affordability Concerns Continue
After seeing our local home price increases, it comes as no surprise that affordability is still a huge hurdle for a lot of Buyers. Nationwide, we're experiencing the least affordability for homes than we've had in 40-years. And this affordability factor doesn't just hang on home prices. Mortgage Interest Rates and Wages are the other two huge factors at play.
The most recent check of mortgage rates by Mortgage News Daily shows a drop in rates from a month ago, and the largest drop in two months. However, the current rates combined with current home prices are still causing a strain.
Regardless of ANYTHING you hear in National headlines, local is really all that matters in Real Estate. Sure, certain national factors can affect everyone. But the way and degree of each local market's reaction really depends on more specific and local details. In Williamson County, the Mayor and Aldermen have worked diligently since the Great Recession to further insulate us in the event of another economic downturn. They've worked to bring in more white-collar jobs by recruiting corporate headquarters for most of the products and brands we use daily. Wage increases both locally and nationally are happening at a faster rate than they have been, which is perhaps the largest boost we've seen in affordability.. and why there appears to not only be a floor in our local home prices, but also strong enough demand for continued home price growth.
Change from Elections
There is a lot of uncertainty and change that clouds Presidential Elections. But the truth is, in Real Estate, there isn't a lot of bad change, regardless of who wins.
Our fears are almost always worse than reality.
Looking back at election periods since 1980, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development as well as the National Association of Realtors report the number of homes sold traditionally increases after an election. This happened in nine out of the past eleven elections, to be exact (1981 & 1989 were the only exceptions).
New home prices have also increased in ten out of the past eleven elections. Only 2009 suffered a price decrease after an election, and we all know what was happening then.
What typically decreases leading up to an election? MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES. Looking locally, this and personal income are most likely our best shots at affording the homes we love. There is no reason to think our home prices will go down anytime soon.
So as you chew on the kick-off to election season, consider this: It may also be a good time to hop into the Real Estate market if income and interest rates can give us a boost. Most people will hold off until after the election. But when do you get the best deals? When no one else is competing.
That's a hard one to debate.
Thinking of moving? Need a plan tailored to your needs? I'd love to help you. I'm a Franklin resident and a Multi-Platinum Award-Winning Williamson County REALTOR ranking in the top 1.5% of agents locally. I am a top producer within Benchmark Realty, the largest brokerage in Tennessee and among the largest in the country. My continuing education includes several designations and my experience keeps me up-to-date with fast-changing market trends. I am a Million-Dollar GUILD Member of the Luxury Home Marketing Institute, my market insights are regularly featured in broadcast media, and my success planted me on the front page of a December 2021 Nashville-area Magazine. But most importantly, I specialize in helping my friends and neighbors buy and sell homes. Why look further when you've got a friend and neighbor who is among the best in the business!
