Franklin Monthly Real Estate Recap: June 2025
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On a nationwide comparison, Greater Nashville is expected to out-perform most other major metros in the United States when it comes to home price appreciation. Homes.com shows in the below graph where the rest of the US cities are expecting to see their prices trend in the next 12 months:
Our investment here in Middle Tennessee continues to be a good one, especially when comparing to the rest of the country.
It is full-blown hot season here in Middle Tennessee, and few things are more taunting in our mid-south housing market than seeing the reflection of hydrangeas in a pool while being fully clothed in the middle of the work day.
It's typically said that pools & spas don't add price to the value of a home, but this time of year, I beg to differ. An image like this is more refreshing in a Buyer tour than an updated kitchen, and this off-market home will be "off" off-market not long after I make this post.
That's not typical right now, though. Most homes are sitting for days and months without a showing. And Buyers are pickier now than ever before.
The Seller's Shift
Extreme selectivity is nothing new in local Buyer trends. This has been happening since interest rates increased in the last half of 2022.
But I'm noticing an interesting trend all of the sudden in our local market among Sellers. I've picked up on this in my every day negotiations, and it's interesting to see it reflected in data now, too:
Sellers in Williamson County don't seem to care as much about prices lately as they do time on market.
I've noticed a few trends while working with Buyers and Sellers just these past few weeks. The majority of Sellers in Williamson County are holding firm against accepting home sale contingencies. Home "Closing" contingencies are more acceptable -- because those indicate a home is already Under Contract and just awaiting Closing day. Sellers are not wanting to take the risk of more time on market even if it means that risk could lead to more financial reward... as typically home sale contingent offers have a higher offer price in order to make the risk worth it to Sellers.
Along that line, more Sellers are reducing price to get their homes sold faster. Don't get me wrong, price is still important. But at this particular moment, we are seeing a decrease in sales prices in Williamson County while our Days on Market has remained unchanged.
Comparing this to nationwide trends... Days on market have skyrocketed nationwide. In other metro areas across the United States, homes are staying on the market about 60 days before going Under Contract. Here in Williamson County our average Days on Market as of the end of May is 25 -- less than half of comparable US cities.
Price reductions are the pain that most of our local Sellers are choosing right now. Having said that, you'll see in this graph below that our median sales price decreased year-to-year which is important to note, though the price is still rising month-to-month in 2025, as indicated by the red dotted line. The blue line indicates 2024 activity,
As you can see, May typically shows up as one of the highest priced months of the year, and this still may ring true for this year. But our prices have stayed in check, stabilizing between 2024 and 2025.
In Williamson County, we have a 2% decrease in our median home sale prices year-to-year as of May.
A Tale of Two Tennessee Counties
Well, it's actually more than two counties. But my point is what's happening among Sellers in Williamson County is NOT what's happening everywhere else. We've already talked about the contrast with Days on Market nationwide. But even closer to home, no two markets are the exact same.
In Greater Nashville, homes are staying on the market a few days longer than they did this time last year. (And 47 Days on Market compared to only 25 Days on Market in Williamson County).
To draw another comparison between Williamson County's preference of quicker sales over prices, Greater Nashville has actually gained in median sales prices year-to-year by 1%, while Williamson County has dipped by 2% in that same time frame.
Comparing Greater Nashville to the rest of the country, we're in incredibly good shape. According to Realtor.com, a lot of comparable metros are seeing price declines due to a surge in inventory. And though we also have a surge in inventory (pictured in the graph below), many other cities have already surpassed inventory levels of 2019 with increases as much as 44% in the number of homes on market.
All counties of Middle Tennessee are seeing more homes on the market as well -- An increase that is almost catching us up to 2019 levels of inventory, though we're not quite there yet. I'll be watching to see if our levels recede, as typical, as we get deeper into summer and whether our annual drop in inventory happens before we reach our 2019 level.
This year's sharp sudden spike is indicated by the red dotted line and is the picture of why we're having to work so much harder to sell homes right now -- For the first time in a long time in Middle Tennessee, there are suddenly more Sellers than Buyers in the market.
Good to be Buyers Right Now!
Consider this payback for the insane 2020/2021 market. It's Buyers' time to shine!
Just last weekend, I got a set of Buyers Under Contract for a home at $110,000 below original list price! And the home was NOT over-priced to begin with.
This window won't be open forever as more Buyers are realizing the opportunity here. And for the Buyers who also have a home to sell, it's a little more tricky, but it's really not as hard as people think it would be. At this moment, I'm finding the smoothest and best success with Buyers when we get your current home on the market and Under Contract first. In that contract, I negotiate a contingency that the deal is off if you don't find your next suitable home. This way, you don't end up homeless and there are no strings attached. That'll spare you the pressure to sell your home in a crunched time, make our offer to the Sellers of your next home more desirable, PLUS you'll know the exact net proceeds you're working with on the sale of your home. We have more homes on the market than we've had in a half-decade. So there are choices out there now, and as you can see in the above graph, the options continue to grow!
You're not alone if you're considering a move like this. As of June 11th, demand for purchase mortgages is up by 20% year-to-year. 20% more Buyers are entering the real estate market right now than this time last year. This percentage has been increasing every month this year. And it's not due solely to mortgage interest rates stabilizing.
Mortgage Bankers Association Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan says, "Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the economy, homebuyers seem to be taking advantage of loosening housing inventory in certain markets."
Fannie Mae's monthly National Housing Survey shows consumer sentiment about the housing market improved in May to the highest level since November -- the percentage of Americans saying it's a good time to buy as of May almost doubled year-to-year.
To Sellers: What have I said these past few years? The key to getting more Buyers in the market will be getting more homes out there --and therefore more options-- for them. It's playing out exactly as I've said.
What's Next?
We all know at this point that we are incredibly blessed to be living and working here in Middle Tennessee. In every economic downturn, including the Great Recession, our pocket of the state typically only feels the slightest impact compared to all other areas in the United States. I was living and working here during the Great Recession and remember the day Nashville Mayor Karl Dean announced we made it through the recession and things were looking up. And wow, did things REALLY turn up for us locally in the nearly 2 decades since.
As Buyers continue to come back to our Real Estate market, and Sellers start letting go of their pandemic-era mortgage interest rates, pretty much all economists expect nationwide home price growth from here on out. The biggest question: By how much?
You can see in the chart below, the economic pessimists anticipate barely any growth this year with steady increases leading to 6.7% growth by 2029. Honestly, this is what I'm expecting and hoping for. Too much growth is not healthy. I'd even be alright with smaller growth than this year-to-year.
The optimists are expecting almost 30% home price growth by 2029. Yikes.
Regardless of how it shakes out, this is just another validation to the train of thought that this current Buyer's window won't be like this for long. I've worked with SO many people who wish they would have made their moves 5 years ago. Before that, people wished they would have made their moves 10 years ago.
Don't be the guy in 2030 who wishes they made the move today.
My biggest concern right now is how to keep from melting in our Middle Tennessee summer! I'm basically living, and working, from pool-to-pool.
Pic of me showcasing a $6m home for Buyer clients in Forest Hills.
Home listed by Jake Griffin | Parks
Schedule a chat with me ASAP: Click this Link!
Thinking of moving? Need a plan tailored to your needs? I'd love to help you. I'm a Franklin resident and a Multi-Platinum Award-Winning Williamson County REALTOR ranking in the top 1.5% of agents locally. I am a top producer within Benchmark Realty, the largest brokerage in Tennessee and among the largest in the country. My continuing education includes several designations and my experience keeps me up-to-date with fast-changing market trends. I am a Million-Dollar GUILD Member of the Luxury Home Marketing Institute, my market insights are regularly featured in broadcast media, and my success planted me on the front page of a December 2021 Nashville-area Magazine. But most importantly, I specialize in helping my friends and neighbors buy and sell homes. Why look further when you've got a friend and neighbor who is among the best in the business!?
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