Grassland Monthly Real Estate Recap: January/February 2022

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Happy March! This week's dry, sunny and warmer weather has me putting away my winter clothes. This is perhaps a bit premature because March is never a guarantee that the worst is past us. But everything else right now feels like it's headed in that direction.

Though not technically spring yet, spring has sprung in the Real Estate market. We kicked off January feeling just as hot as the beginning of 2021. Buyers were still out and even more competitive than the same time last year. But the intensity so far isn't keeping pace.

What's Happening

Fewer homes are For Sale. I mean, even fewer homes. I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but our market continues to struggle with enough homes for all the Buyers, and it continues to get worse.

Our February numbers aren't technically out yet - but preliminarily reviewing data in Grassland, we are shaping up to have at least a 30% decrease in the number of homes sold between February 2021 & February 2022. This is simply because there weren't any more homes than that to sell. And as you know, this results in increasing sales prices due to supply and demand.

January's numbers are final, and what we found in Grassland is a very similar number of homes sold year-to-year that month, which had us all feeling pretty confident.

Grassland January Stats:

• Homes Sold: 27 (2021) vs. 26 (2022) - decrease by 1
• Average Sales Price: $756,414 (2021) vs. $1,424,273 (2022) - 88% increase in average sales prices here year-over-year
• Grassland's average home sold in January 2022 was built in 1987.

Something else to consider: In January 2021, homes were fetching on average about 2% less than list price. In January 2022, our homes averaged a sales price of almost 2% higher than list price.

Of course, none of this info can be applied across the board, as every home is different and fetches different results on the market. But these averages are a pretty good peak at the overall picture of what's happening with our Real Estate.

Speaking of bigger picture, what we're seeing here is consistent with what's happening nationwide:

This graph shows information compiled by the National Association of Realtors. "Pending" homes sales in January refers to those Under Contract and likely closing in February. Though the south region has the most pending sales, each region has experienced a decrease in home sale activity between January 2021 & January 2022 (which will likely be reflected when February numbers are finalized).

Local Comparisons

It's human nature to wonder how our communities compare in values. So here is a breakdown of average sales prices across Williamson County in January 2022:

• Brentwood: $1,459,825 
• Grassland: $1,424,273
• Arrington: $1,206,231
• Franklin: $1,177,319
• College Grove: $1,033,782
• Thompsons Station: $1,006,043
• Nolensville: $778,941
• Spring Hill: $591,738
• Fairview: $416,585

Our County's average sales price altogether just broke past the million-dollar mark in January, averaging a sales price of $1,025,992 for the first time ever. This is an increase from $998,520 in December.

To put this into context, here are where our Williamson County sales prices averaged the past few years:

• January 2020 - $581,095
• January 2019 - $561,762
• January 2018 - $582,297

So, in just one year, our sales price average in Williamson County has almost doubled from where it consistently hovered in previous Januarys.

Where Are These Numbers Headed?

This is the question crystal balls are made for, but it's among the questions I get almost every day. Here are a few:

1. Will we see 2020 prices here ever again? I will never say never, but the likelihood of prices decreasing so dramatically to get back down to that point is incredibly low. There is a large train of thought in the industry right now that these prices are here to stay. Sure, we may see some variances (see the comparisons of the past few Januarys, above), but generally speaking, a dramatic loss in these current values is slim.
2. Will prices start going down soon? This elaborates more on my answer to #1, but I actually do think at some point in the near future, we'll start to see a leveling off of these rates of increase. Prices will eventually drop as these rates of increase stop altogether, but this could be years down the line. And I don't expect any drop in prices to be dramatic (not like what we saw in the Great Recession). The earliest action I see happening is Sellers having to recalibrate their expectations. The Sellers who are overpricing now will be forced to price correctly (and some already are due to market rejection).
3. Why are there so few homes For Sale and so many Buyers? There are a lot of reasons for this one. We have Baby Boomers, the second largest generation ever, staying in their homes longer than any generation before them. At the same time, we have Millennials, the largest generation ever, entering the market as first time homebuyers. These two generations are fighting over the same homes, which was happening before 2020. At the same time, our population continues to grow. This, while we've also had a shortage in new construction homes built. Builders can't catch up. This was also happening before 2020, but then got worse with the crunch in supply chains. To add to it, all the nationwide reshuffling that started in 2020. People from places with higher costs of living moved to places with lower costs of living, inflating home prices and values with their cash offers and bidding wars. So we have a lot of existing homeowners who have decided it's more affordable to tap into their newfound equity and stay put, rather than dump it all into another home that has also increased in value at the same rate. So many would-be Sellers have decided not to sell because of their now-available equity. But the demand for people who want to Buy is just as aggressive as ever.

Number 3 really sums up the main factors that are being watched to answer questions 1 & 2. Real Estate researchers speculate we may not see a correction in prices until quite a few of these factors subside, which could take another 5-7 years.

However, recent news of Russia and Ukraine may be giving some Buyers pause, even if just temporarily. I'm also noticing less tolerance returning among Buyers considering $1,000,000+ homes. For example, Buyers in this price range and above want vaulted ceilings, a grand entranceway, and an open kitchen/great room floor plan. It doesn't seem like many other factors weigh as heavily at this moment. And since the average of our homes in Grassland is $1.4m+, yet built in the late-1980's, we may see a slight reckoning here for the homes that aren't already renovated.

Spring Market Awaits

Though spring market here really starts on January 2nd, March will likely usher in a change in pace and dynamics, considering all the above. In several days, once February's numbers are closed out and we get into the swing of spring, I'll make sure to update how everything is "moving." We've had a strong start to 2022 Real Estate here, and now is a great time to sell.

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For questions about selling or buying a home, please reach out! I’m a Grassland area resident and I’m a Multi-Platinum Award-Winning Williamson County REALTOR® ranking in the top 1.5% of Realtors in Williamson County. I am a Million-Dollar GUILD Member of the Luxury Home Marketing Institute, my market insights are regularly featured in broadcast media, and my success planted me on the front page of a December 2021 Nashville-area Magazine. But most importantly, I specialize in helping my friends and neighbors buy and sell homes.