Franklin Monthly Real Estate Recap - November 2023
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And as most picturesque subjects go.. a picture doesn't do it justice.
That's kind of the vibe right now in Real Estate. I share snapshots of our market often.. but unless you're working in it every day, it's hard to grasp exactly what it's like or how it's different. With every piece of data I share on social media or in post cards, there's a "feel" I try to pass along but the feel may not make it past the two dimensions. Which is why I write these blogs... for a deeper level of understanding to those of you who read them!
Understanding is Everything
I've noticed over the years.. the more educated my client base (and those considering becoming my clients), the better the home purchase and sale process when you're ready.
Right now, there are A LOT of people not ready to enter the market, which is typical this time of year and completely understandable considering economic temperature. But this is the perfect time to get your ducks in a row. It's the perfect time to start doing your homework on Lending, locations, neighborhoods, and home maintenance/repairs if you have a home to sell.
Already this week, mortgage lending applications are up (for the third week in a row) as mortgage interest rates saw the biggest single-day plunge since 2020 on Tuesday, thanks to economic data showing an easing of inflation. The markets are banking more on a soft landing for our US economy now.
Mortgage application numbers are considered a leading indicator for our market -- indicating there will be a surge of homes going Under Contract in the near future. Basically, Buyers are preparing to get themselves a home soon.
Mortgage News Daily is showing interest rates as of COB Thursday with 3 of the most popular products below the 7% mark. This is an incredible change from just a month ago when we hit the 8% range in mid-October.
When rates were higher last month, it would have made sense that Buyers would have backed off. However, the appetite seemed to remain, locally anyway. We continued to see a decent amount of homes going Under Contract in Williamson County. Our home prices increased year-over-year despite high interest rates and our level of active listings didn't increase.
Local Home Prices
Williamson County continues to out-perform the larger markets (regional, state and national numbers). It's been this way for decades, we saw it during the Great Recession, then the pandemic, and now post-pandemic during economic uncertainty.
You may be hearing doom and gloom in local and national news headlines -- and maybe even warnings that the sky is falling. I've been monitoring this for about 5 years -- hearing the same rhetoric-- and telling you in these blogs what's really happening. So far, everyone waiting on the sidelines for the sky to fall has lost out on hundreds of thousands of dollars in equity -- that even with a crash, they are not likely to make up for now. Here's the latest for Williamson County:
Red line represents last year. Black line represents this year until the end of October (the last full month to draw stats on). You can see our pries change monthly and appear very volatile. However, the year-to-year comparisons are the important indicators. This way, we're taking into effect seasonal behavior.
Our latest numbers show median home prices in Williamson County sold about $25,000 higher last month than October 2022. This is a strong indication that our home values are holding strong (and even increasing).
You can see that last year, home prices sold the highest in November than all of 2022. We may just see the same thing happen this year when considering the sharp decrease in mortgage interest rates happening now. Most homes going Under Contract right now will Close in November.
Getting hyper-local within Williamson County, here is how our different cities are performing with median sales prices as of the close of last month:
- College Grove: $1,661,000 (+$750,000 since last October)
- Brentwood: $1,164,000 (+$51,000 since last October)
- Arrington: $1,082,000 (-$501,000 since last October)
- Franklin: $975,000 (+$175,000 since last October)
- Nolensville: $870,000 (-$48,000 since last October)
- Thompsons Station: $775,000 (-$25,000 since last October)
- Spring Hill (Williamson): $628,000 (+$8,000 since last October)
- Fairview: $488,000 (+$28,000 since last October)
The decrease in Nolensville, Arrington and Thompsons Station sales prices could be due to a slowing down of New Construction homes in those areas, and perhaps more New Construction in College Grove. College Grove has seen a significant increase in median sales prices year-to-year. We may also be seeing a bit of a migration pattern -- Buyers finding more value in the less dense areas like College Grove, and moving out of places like Nolensville, Arrington and Thompsons Station. Having said that, though, trends like these are never permanent. And all of our areas in Williamson County have a significant amount of value in our homes still.
Going Deep
Diving into Grassland -- our sweet spot between Franklin and Brentwood.
We had 29 homes sell in October 2022, with a median sales price of $687,000. This year, we had slightly fewer homes sell during October 2023.
22 homes sold with a median sales price of $977,500. That's a $290,500 increase in our Grassland median sales prices year-to-year!
Our neighborhoods look like this:
- Prescott Place: 1 home sold at $425,000
- River Rest: 1 home sold at $500,000
- Grassland Estates: 1 home sold at $600,000
- Fieldstone Farms: 5 homes sold at an average of $622,480
- Cottonwood: 1 home sold at $955,000
- Cardel Village: 1 home sold at $949,900
- Jackson Lake: 1 home sold at $1,000,000
- Horseshoe Bend: 1 home sold at $1,179,900
- Legends Ridge: 1 home sold at $1,900,000
- Jubilee Ridge: 1 home sold at $1,355,000
- Steeplechase Farms: 1 home sold at $1,385,000
- Stonebridge Park: 1 home sold at $1,525,000
- Temple Hills: 2 homes sold at an average of $1,587,500
- Laurelbrooke: 2 homes sold at an average of $3,014,000
- 2 homes sold outside of neighborhoods
Click on any of these links for each neighborhood to see each home and the pictures. Get an idea for how your home compares!
Zooming Out
Pulling back out and looking at Greater Nashville -- Home pries and most other numbers are relatively the same year-to-year EXCEPT inventory. Inventory is the biggest thing changing.. to the tune of a 21% decrease.
This means 21% fewer homes hit the Greater Nashville market in October 2023 than October 2022. This led to 6% fewer homes Closing year-to-year (because you can't sell what you don't have.) And this is why all other numbers are barely flinching, and why home prices aren't crashing.
Nationwide, Redfin is reporting a 4.2% increase in median home sales prices year-to-year due to the exact same factors (supply & demand).
And you can see in Redfin's rolling chart, we currently have the highest home sales prices than we have ever had this time of any year, indicated by the orange line:
I know this price information isn't ideal for Buyers. Affordability is a real problem right now. But you can see this is the time of year when prices typically trend down month-to-month. There is a slight chance we may see that, or at least a leveling off, as shown in in 2020.
I've said in the past, and still believe, that Buyer relief will come mostly in the form of mortgage interest rates. And there is good reason to believe we are in a time of opportunity for both of these factors right now. Come Spring, prices always come back up (as seen in the Redfin chart above) but I believe if interest rates continue to decrease, there will be incredibly more Buyer competition in Spring than what we are seeing now. Our prices have a real chance of getting another enormous bump.
Big Picture
Barring any crazy change, Spring will be ripe for listing a home to sell. Start prepping now, loop in your favorite Realtor (!) and make a timeline with goals. Spring market begins January 2nd here in the midstate and your ideal list date will be here before you know it!
For Buyers, consider all the above. I had a conversation with a Buyer client this week and told them, if you are waiting to buy in Spring for more inventory, remember there will also be more Buyer competition. Be prepared to pay more and have a more competitive offer. If you see a home that works for you NOW, jump on it, especially since we have a break in interest rates now. This is the time to score the best deal on a home, and you have just as much of a chance now of finding the home that works for you.
I'm always available to meet with you in person and walk you through next steps based on your personal goals and circumstances. Real Estate is not one-size-fits-all, but I hope you have a better "feel" now on what's happening in our market and where you may fit in!
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Thinking of moving? Need a plan tailored to your needs? I'd love to help you. I'm a Franklin resident and a Multi-Platinum Award-Winning Williamson County REALTOR ranking in the top 1.5% of agents locally. I am a top producer within Benchmark Realty, the largest brokerage in Tennessee and among the largest in the country. My continuing education includes several designations and my experience keeps me up-to-date with fast-changing market trends. I am a Million-Dollar GUILD Member of the Luxury Home Marketing Institute, my market insights are regularly featured in broadcast media, and my success planted me on the front page of a December 2021 Nashville-area Magazine. But most importantly, I specialize in helping my friends and neighbors buy and sell homes. Why look further when you've got a friend and neighbor who is among the best in the business!
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